Three exchange-rate scenarios and their effects
Three exchange-rate scenarios and their effects. Sources: IMF Country Report 26/37 (baseline and downside scenario), CBvS Economic Bulletin April 2026 (inflation projection), gov.sr (Savings and Stabilisation Fund), IMF Working Paper 20/20 and Stabroek News (Guyana). Exchange rates indicative, derived from the percentage deviations cited; not a forecast.
| Scenario | Basis | Rate SRD/USD, indicative direction | Prices in SRD | Prices in EUR/USD | Financing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stabilisation | IMF baseline: inflation 9.7% (2026) and falling; CBvS projection 7.4% at end-2026; growth 3.9% (2026), 4.4% (2027). The IMF gives no exchange-rate projection; the rate is an assumption by PAM | End-2027 approximately 38 to 40 (PAM assumption) | Rise with inflation plus real scarcity | Rise moderately, roughly by the difference between inflation and depreciation | 7 per cent facility approaches zero in real terms; demand normalises |
| B. Depreciation | IMF downside scenario (Box 1, Country Report 26/37): rate 14% weaker than the baseline in 2027; a repeat of the fiscal and monetary slippage of 2025 is the most obvious trigger (PAM interpretation) | End-2027 approximately 43 to 46 (14% above the scenario A assumption) | Rise sharply; nominal increase without real growth; imported building materials become dearer faster than inflation | Fall or flat: buyers with foreign-currency income gain purchasing power | The margin on the fixed 7 per cent portfolio is eroded in real terms (interest-rate risk); borrowers with a foreign-currency loan and SRD income see their payments rise (credit risk) |
| C. Oil inflows | First oil 2028; growth 28 to 43% in 2028–2029 (IMF). Whether the currency appreciates in nominal terms depends on how much of the oil revenue is saved through the Savings and Stabilisation Fund and whether the CBvS sterilises the inflows; in Guyana the adjustment in any event ran through rents and prices in Georgetown | End-2027 close to the scenario A assumption; from 2028 appreciation or a stabilised rate with domestic price pressure | Greater Paramaribo: rise in SRD and in foreign currency (oil-sector demand; land and housing are non-tradable); districts without an oil link: flat. Construction costs in SRD roughly flat (materials cheaper, wages and land dearer), rising in foreign currency | Rise in the capital; districts lag behind | Positive in real terms; the fixed 3 and 7 per cent loans become less burdensome in real terms for the State and the banks, but demand for subsidy grows through higher land and house prices in the capital |
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PAM Research & Analytics (2026). Three exchange-rate scenarios and their effects. In: Why SRD property prices mislead (PAM-SI-2026-02). https://pamnv.com/data/en/three-exchange-rate-scenarios-and-their-effects-suriname.html
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